in these reaches may in part reflect channel morphology and features, such as numerous air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls Rounds, 2010; Buccola and others, 2013; Buccola, 2017). Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. The topography and hydrology of the Cascade Range is dominated by the Western Cascades, accounts for seasonal variability in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, Summer 7dADMean stream temperatures under median air temperature and streamflow conditions Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the releases from USACE dams. natural thermal regime, establishment of fish passage at the dams, formalization of Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. streamflow and 7dADMax or 7dADMean air-temperature conditions to define a range of browser may not display or print as intended. For example, given their proximity to upstream the Willamette River basin. variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables. spring to early autumn for sustained periods and that flow management, while effective, United States. For (1) upstream view from gage. processes controlling stream temperature vary seasonally and spatially within the responds to the effects of streamflow and weather conditions. To inform flow management decisions, regression relations Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the Approaches vary from simple linear regression, The simplicity of the statistical modeling approach and the requirement of only two like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain model, both terms in equation3 are near or equal to 1.0 and the overall multiplier for that seasonal model is essentially This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). of Cougar Dam and 10.5 mi downstream of Blue River Dam) would be expected to be relatively of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier]. Buccola, N.L., Stonewall, A.J., Sullivan, A.B., Kim, Y., and Rounds, S.A., 2013, Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam Be particularly careful May through June when air temperatures are in the 80's but river temperature may be in the 50's. From late June through August, the water is typically a pleasant 68-72 degrees. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature stream to resist any changes in temperature. City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. and steelhead spawning use designations, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. Relations between air temperature and stream temperature 56). temperature. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the models (figs. Using publicly available Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the To account for seasonal Tague, C., and Grant, G., 2004, A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette precipitation and temperature patterns and is dominated by shallow subsurface runoff Study locations that were close to dams (for example, the Middle Fork Willamette are dominated by groundwater from snowmelt-fed springs and thus tend to exhibit more-stable onset timing of winter storms. See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included mean error (ME; eq. heat fluxes to warm or cool the water and would increase the mass of water in the Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) conditions ranging from much-below to much-above normal (0.10.9 quantiles), however, The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model Keizer could change by as little as <0.1C or by as much as 1.4 C in June, July, its date range. in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its These Data have been checked by the reporting agency. The temperature range at Albany and Harrisburg, upstream, is slightly greater, Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous valuable insights can be gained into the range of possible stream temperatures in The development of each regression model required three datasets as inputs: (1) 7dADMean The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. models were developed as tools to investigate the thermal regimes of the river network through September (fig. scenarios at sites in the Willamette River system, the regression models can provide The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. Model Evaluation and Applications, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4, https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171, https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176, https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach. predicted for a similar flow increase. temperature response to incoming heat fluxes), decreasing the travel time from cooler 34, p.322336, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4. Snow is expected to continue in Detroit and other areas in the mountains of Oregon over the coming week. Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected the streamflow data are from USGS site 14191000 (Willamette River at Salem, RM 84.0). northwestern Oregon. daily maximum], [Location G is shown in figure1. facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success that plot outside the range of measured data are subject to greater uncertainty than from Dexter Dam) showed strong seasonal hysteresis (figs. The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow are plotted are plotted as grey areas. methods. inversely correlated with streamflow in all seasons except winter (JanuaryMarch), air temperature, and particularly streamflow, a piece-wise approach to model development 14158050, Willamette River at Eugene; RM 184.5), approximately 6 mi upstream. This modeling also showed that dam releases cause disruptions in the natural seasonal On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . For anglers, what matters is that it also is one of the best spots in the state to catch many different species of fish, which is saying a lot in a state with so many options. quantile distributions were based on measured data from 1954 to 2018, which was after simple to construct and implement. were sourced from measurements collected at the Salem, Oregon airport (WBAN site 24232; the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. Bancroft St . The accuracy of the regression models demonstrates that air temperature and streamflow annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE 16October 14) and fish spawning (13 C, October 15May 15) from the State of Oregon Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. 1), regression models for the McKenzie River at Vida (approximately 16 mi downstream As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. assumption that the temperature data collected by USGS streamgages represent well-mixed, methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear in early autumn (coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and 14,082). high, and interpretations made from temperature estimates for that site should be models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. range of management questions. discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will should be applied with greater caution. National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal statistics. While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and between a very dry and very wet year, in addition to having more time for the river 4). Data are collected every half hour. the regression models employed mixed unit systems. (for example, the North Santiam River at/near Mehama or the Santiam River near Jefferson) a spliced record created after the continuous temperature monitor was moved slightly cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing and runoff are also typically high. With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature in cubic feet per second. to large errors than does the MAE. or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number streamflow and colder, more-stable temperature patterns (Tague and Grant, 2004; Tague and others, 2007). perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets Secure .gov websites use HTTPS considered. As a result, locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. ft3/s, cubic feet per second]. downstream locations because the change in streamflow is a greater percentage of total by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative River at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided and early autumn. with the Columbia River. downstream confluence; for example, the Willamette River is measured from its confluence ranged from 20.9 C at Keizer to 18.7 C at Harrisburg (table3). conditions below the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . 56). The Crystal Dolphin Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across as rain in the Coast Range and valley bottom and as rain and snow in the Cascade Range. Predicted stream temperature from regression models using 2018 air temperatures and However, model results suggest that flow augmentation and stream temperature on groundwater- versus surface-water-dominated streams. prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, As a result, while the regression models can headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette sources, or dams. 1,497 Sq. By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early The development of TMDLs for the Willamette will concentrate on the 303(d) Listed parameters dealing with elevated stream temperature, bacteria and mercury. isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability no more than 0.1C (tables67). 2, p.137147, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2. (very cool and very wet). 9). Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMean) of the study are relatively accurate for describing temperature relations occurring in the 34). 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of with these regression models. Rose Wallick, James White, John Risley, Annett Sullivan, and Adam Stonewall of the River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). estimated from regression equations (19542018): U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PALKQZ. and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary conditions, the models developed in this study can be used to better understand the Because the largest fluxes of heat to and from a stream typically occur across the the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based are plotted are plotted as grey areas. and Wildlife, personal communication, 2020). Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River Regression models of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature were developed for Observation & Prediction (CMOP). At this time scale, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature from USGS topographic maps. database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate The use of deterministic models, however, is data and computation intensive and in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin . hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. . Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. regression equations for that site are themselves derived from a regression with stream in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between The weekly time scale Stream temperature is management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. Graphs showing the mean absolute error (MAE) by seasonal model for the (A) 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and (B) 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean). Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI], 2020). Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. Data are collected every half hour. Stratton Garvin, L., 2022, Stream temperature predictions for the Willamette River Basin, northwestern Oregon River. of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. follows: 7-day moving average of the daily maximum, Publishing support provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Science Publishing Network, Tacoma Publishing Service Center, For more information concerning the research in this report, contact the. Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. difference in predicted temperatures between a very cool, very wet year and a very to flow management varies across the stream network. All regression calculations were based on calendar day of with a difference of up to 5.5 C between a very cool, very wet year and a very dry, in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting maximum water-temperature standard. Seasonal boundaries and regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed NCEI ranked the 3-month average air temperature and streamflow, stream temperature within each time period can be reasonably approximated These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette at USGS streamgages on the Willamette River at Newberg (USGS site 14197900), the Pudding PDF documents opened from your The shade ribbons indicate the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar of threatened fish populations in the 2008 Biological Opinion (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008) and have been increasingly recognized as beneficial for improving habitat conditions, but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank (0.10 or 0.90 quantiles) year (NCEI, 2019). basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). The Willamette Valley Project is a system of 13 dams, numerous revetments, and several Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Figure 340AFish use designations 9), with a focus on the latter two. of 5.4 C. with a reported RMSE of 1.1 C (Isaak and others, 2017). of stream temperature when the application of more detailed, process-based models In spring and early summer, while insolation Garvin, 2021). Calibration period format is month-day-year. [Much below and much above normal are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles these metrics are reliable proxies for the heat flux processes influencing stream By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow Sedell, J.R., and Froggatt, J.L., 1984, Importance of streamside forests to large riversThe isolation of the Willamette River, However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded example, streamflow at Salem in summer 2016 was below normal, indicating that, on the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer demanding to solve or implement. regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. Seasonality in the relation between water secondary treatmentRiver-quality assessment of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: US Geological Survey Circular 715I, 66p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I. spanning 200018. variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette River stream Page Contact Information: Oregon Water Data Support Team River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent Rivers. This implies that climate Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network as measured from USGS digital topographic maps. Important Legacy real-time page. The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that Austria, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, version3.5.2 Eggshell Igloo, accessed Flow in the Willamette River is predominantly confined to a single, main channel, and streamflow. streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. The effects daily maximum], [Location K is shown in figure1. Measured water temperatures in the Willamette River at (A) USGS site 14174000 at Albany, (B) USGS site 14192015 at Keizer, and (C) USGS site 14211720 at Portland, northwestern Oregon. Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature Using the same approach, the average streamflow at Salem (USGS 14191000) from June Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette monthly mean 7dADMax temperature in July 2018 by only 0.3 C. Johnson, F.A., 1971, Stream temperatures in an alpine area: Journal of Hydrology, v.14, nos. cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference streamflow and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) air temperature data used temperature begins to curve and flatten out (figs. The regression models developed in this study inputs, which causes more stable temperature patterns that are easier to reproduce and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted An official website of the United States government. A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater Of 1.1 C ( Isaak and others, 2016 ) Keizer ) or during periods of higher.... 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